Thermodynamics vs Kinetics

Suppose there was a treehouse that was shoddily built. There weren't enough wooden planks, and the ones that were there were held in place by rusty nails. Further, the tree on which it was built was old and rotting, and located in an area prone to wind gusts.

You could justifiably make a statement as to the current state of the treehouse relative to a possible future state. Namely, its current state is up in a tree, but some time in the future, the pieces of wood would be lying on the ground, along with any unlucky children that might be atop it at the wrong moment.

You might say that the current state of the treehouse is unstable. In the future, it will be in a more stable, though also more disordered, state. You might even say that there's a force pulling the treehouse from its current unstable state to its future more stable state.

Remembering back to my chemical engineering days, one of the concepts that seemed to transcend the field is difference between thermodynamics and kinetics. What I've described above is a statement of thermodynamics: how stable the current state of affairs is relative to some other state, which way the arrow of causality wants to move between the states, how strongly the pull is between one state and another.

Kinetics, on the other hand, would describe how fast the treehouse would move from its current state to the future state, what path it would take, what factors would speed up or slow down that change, etc. A kinetic analysis might involve the equation d=1/2gt^2.

Thermodynamics speaks simply to the stability of a system. It doesn't say how quickly or in what exact manner any change might happen; that's what kinetics is for.

Right now, the worldwide monetary system is in an extremely unstable state of affairs. The instability is caused by debt, fiat currency, and monetary inflation. We have ample thermodynamic knowledge of that fact. A more stable state of affairs lies at some point in the future: a world with much less debt, an end to fiat currencies, and lack of central monetary policy. What we don't have is kinetic knowledge: when that future world will come about, how quickly, and in what manner.

All we can do is try our best to protect ourselves from the current instability, and even those means are not obvious.

To be continued...

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but we don't have an equasion for this problem

Right wing Christians use this approach to "prove" that God did or didn't do something or to "disprove" abiogenesis and evolution.

I learned thermo in terms of systems and energy crossing system boundries. I don't recall stability being an issue.