Catallarchy’s College Football Top 25 - Week 7

For all games up to 10/15, here are the (much delayed) updated rankings:

Rank - Team - Week 6
1 Texas (1)
2 USC (2)
3 VaTech (3)
4 Texas Tech (5)
5 Georgia (4)
6 Auburn (7)
7 UCLA (10)
8 WVU (13)
9 Wisconsin (12)
10 Alabama (14)
11 Miami (16)
12 Iowa (17)
13 LSU (18)
14 Florida State (6)
15 Nebraska (21)
16 Colorado (8)
17 Cal (11)
18 Louisville (9)
19 Boston College (23)
20 Oklahoma (33)
21 Toledo (25)
22 Oregon (26)
23 Penn State (15)
24 Ohio State (32)
25 Virginia (34)

Dropped Out
28 Tennessee (22)
30 U Conn (19)
33 Minnesota (20)
37 Michigan State (24)

Other CTLY
32 Georgia Tech (40)
79 Western Michigan (76)
70 Miami (OH) (86)
103 Kentucky (99)

Commentary below, full rankings on page 2, and my subjective reordering of the given Top 25 on page 3.

Man, what a game at Notre Dame. I'm a believer now. USC took it in the gut and came out with the win, no hesitation or floundering. Yeah, VT's gonna get Auburned, but at this point I can't say that we're clearly better than either who are above us.

I can't believe that FSU choked for the Hoo. Way to go, 'noles. Way to screw up our backdoor chances of jumping Texas in the BCS by losing... :furious: Of course, VT better have its head in the game vs. Dr. Turtle this Thursday or all of this BCS talk will be moot. And I'll be there, live, courtesy of my Dad's last minute connections for the ticket hook up. :cool:

Very pleased with how the poll is holding up and performing. I don't see any major improbables anymore, and my subjective reshuffling is mild and mostly reflects my own bias. :)

The major problem is Notre Dame. Here is a case where their schedule and the results on the field dictate a low ranking, but its painfully obvious that they are better than their record and results. I can't see any way short of introducing a radical new data element into the poll that would correct for that sort of "obvious underranking." I.E. MOV or something, but that would be more difficult to find and enter, and I'm hella lazy.

Full Rankings:

Rank Team
1 Texas
3 VaTech
4 Texas Tech
5 Georgia
6 Auburn
9 Wisconsin
10 Alabama
11 Miami
12 Iowa
13 LSU
14 Florida State
15 Nebraska
16 Colorado
17 Cal
18 Louisville
19 Boston College
20 Oklahoma
21 Toledo
22 Oregon
23 Penn State
24 Ohio State
25 Virginia
26 TCU
27 Texas A&M
28 Tennessee
29 Northwestern
30 U Conn
31 Michigan
32 Georgia Tech
33 Minnesota
34 Boise St.
35 Missouri
36 Maryland
37 Michigan State
38 Oregon State
39 Stanford
40 Kansas State
41 Oklahoma St.
42 Az. State
43 Rutgers
44 Fresno State
45 Indiana
46 Florida
47 Baylor
49 Clemson
50 South Carolina
51 Bowling Green
52 Pitt
53 Notre Dame
54 Utah
55 Nevada
56 Cincinnati
57 Navy
58 Tulsa
59 BYU
60 Central Michigan
61 Southern Miss
62 Wyoming
63 Colorado State
64 New Mexico
65 Vanderbilt
66 Purdue
67 Iowa State
68 UNC
69 Kansas
70 Miami (OH)
71 South Florida
72 San Diego State
73 ECU
74 Washington State
75 Memphis
76 UCF
77 Marshall
78 NC State
79 Western Michigan
80 Houston
81 Northern Illinois
82 Eastern Michigan
83 Arkansas
84 Akron
85 Air Force
86 UAB
87 Arkansas State
88 Ole Miss
89 Illinois
90 North Texas
91 Middle TN State
92 La Monroe
93 Wake Forest
94 Mississippi State
95 La Tech
96 Tulane
97 Utah State
99 Idaho
100 Hawaii
101 Syracuse
102 Ohio
103 Kentucky
104 Washington
105 SMU
106 Arizona
107 Troy State
108 Duke
109 Fla Intl
110 Ball State
111 Kent State
112 San Jose State
113 Fla Atlantic
114 La Lafayette
115 Rice
116 Buffalo
117 New Mexico State
118 Army
119 Temple

Assuming my poll has it right with who the Top 25 should be but not exactly where, here’s my opinion:

Rank Team Computer
1 Texas (1)
2 USC (2)
3 VaTech (3)
4 Georgia (5)
5 Miami (11)
6 Auburn (6)
7 Alabama (10)
8 Texas Tech (4)
9 LSU (13)
10 UCLA (7)
11 WVU (8)
12 Wisconsin (9)
13 Iowa (12)
14 Florida State (14)
15 Nebraska (15)
16 Colorado (16)
17 Cal (17)
18 Louisville (18)
19 Penn State (23)
20 Ohio State (24)
21 Boston College (19)
22 Virginia (25)
23 Oklahoma (20)
24 Toledo (21)
25 Oregon (22)

And Conference Ranks by average team rank:

Rank Conf Average Team Rank
1 Big 12 (32)
2 Big Ten (36)
3 ACC (45)
4 Pac-10 (45)
5 Big East (47)
6 SEC (49)
7 Notre Dame (52)
8 MWC (65)
9 Conf USA (79)
10 MAC (81)
11 WAC (84)
12 I-A Indep (98)
13 Sun Belt (100)

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Ryan- Kentucky is really,


Kentucky is really, really bad. The bottom half of the SEC west is really bad. The Big East has a lot of middling teams in there so despite the fact that the SEC has 4 teams in the top 25, the gap between the haves and have nots ends up putting them ever so slightly below the BE. The SEC also does not have a good WPT.

As for Basketball, I hadn't thought of it, though I suppose I could modify my football rankings relatively easy (its all just win-loss as the only external data input). Problems - lots more games, different biases (losing doesnt have the same effect), so at least game values would have to change, and in any case I'd only wrap it up on a weekly basis anyway. The biggest problem would be that I don't care about college basketball, and I don't watch other games (other than the rare VT game) like I do for college football, so I'd have little external gauge on how correct the rankings would be.

David, I'm not Jon, but I


I'm not Jon, but I think a playoff system would be horrific. By nature the college football system is not set up for playoffs. The bowl system is a great reward for the fans as well as the team, and it simply isn't as important as people make it out to have some sort of definitive "settled on the field" champion.

In any case, you can't ever have that since you don't have round-robin play among the 119 Div 1-A teams. Anything that restricts this number will necessarily be arbitrary and possibly exclude the "correct" team in favor of some arbitrary team.

It also cheapens the regular season, as almost all playoff systems do. League soccer gets around that by demoting teams to the minors if they suck, but absent that mechanism I think playoffs are generally a bad idea who's time is unfortunately still with us. For basketball it makes a bit more sense, and the game itself is amenable to playing many many iterations of it within a week (sometimes in a day), etc. However, the regular season in college basketball is practically meaningless, because you can suck all year and then (like UNC) run the table in your conf. playoff, go to the NCAA and continue winning to the FInal Four. When that is both possible and lauded, then the regular season has no meaning. If you end with a losing record you shouldn't have any shot at the big prize, period. If you end with a mediocre record, you shouldn't have a shot at the big prize. I don't like college conference tournaments where even the crappy teams get a spot (though at #16 in their bracket). The "big dance" shouldn't have any non-conf champions.
But this is all more of my general distaste for college basketball. Pro basketball is, if possible, even less interesting.

All a playoff would do is benefit TV networks and TV fans. It would screw the players, their families, and the fans who show up at the games (y'know, the reason they play is to play in front of actual people, not cameras), and eliminate the bowl system. That I cannot dig.

Wow. Louisville just keeps

Wow. Louisville just keeps dropping in the polls (and rightly so)... As a fan, this is such a disappointing year. :(

It's odd that the Big East is ranked above the SEC.

Also, will you be doing college basketball?

David, I'm against a playoff


I'm against a playoff system for the reasons Brian stated above. I think most people clamoring for a playoff system fall into the "casual" fan category, maybe watching a game or two on the weekend, or catching a few highlights on Sportscenter. The fans who actually travel to games, contribute to the athletic depts, and travel to bowls are for the most part, satisfied with how things are.

Jonathan, what are your

Jonathan, what are your thoughts about a playoff system replacing the BCS?

I think there's a better

I think there's a better than even chance that if we take care of business, the computers put us ahead of Texas in the BCS standings.

Very interesting. I've been

Very interesting. I've been inclined to hope for a playoff system, but you bring up some good points. Hmmn. Though I wouldn't want to be the Auburn team that sits undefeated at #3 with no way to prove their worth against the top 2.

Stormy- The usual computer


The usual computer SOS components only include the teams that have been played, but my formulation calulates the "wins per team per schedule" for every team on the schedule, and then compares that # to every team's WPTPS in Div 1-A. So yes, what I ran yesterday includes every team on the schedule's wins (excepting the Div 1-AA teams).

And shouldn't this be on the most recent ratings post? :)

Does SOS include only the

Does SOS include only the part of the schedule that's been played so far, or the whole schedule?