Four more years of Bush?

The 2004 election is over. George Bush will continue his reign.

This is becoming clearer every day. Howard Dean, the one-time "peace candidate", is picking up steam (read: media attention*) as the leader of the Democratic Party circus. Even today Gore announced his support for Dean.

So why don't I think Dean will eventually win? As Jeff Adams over at Aw Shucks points out (link via Dixie Daily News), Dean is completely out of touch with the entire South, a region one can't easily overlook.

...Dean, while speaking in Tennessee, put his foot in his mouth by telling the audience that they needed ?to stop having our elections in the South based on race, guns, God and gays, and start having them based on jobs and health insurance and a foreign policy that's consistent with American values." What Dean meant was to vote for government handouts and the nanny state, which are not traditional ?American values.?
...Dean shows how most liberals are blind to the fact that race isn?t the primary motivator in how Southerners live, work and vote.

Yes, he will carry California. Bush will carry Texas. Dean gets New York. Bush gets the entire South. Dean gets Michigan (?), Bush gets Florida (?) and large parts of the West. When the dust settles, "the people" will have chosen a rube over a Northeastern snob.

Meanwhile, for the Unnecessarily Obvious Fact Award, try the Guardian's Dean's Strength Is Among Liberals.

* And unlike McCain 2000, this doesn't conflict with his party's interests.

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For a bit of a counterpoint,

For a bit of a counterpoint, Jonathan Rauch claims that Dean will not be a pushover in the coming election:

"Dean gets Michigan (?)"

Yes, Dean will probably win here in Michigan, like Gore did in 2000. Despite the generally conservative semi-rural western and northern parts of the state, the United Auto Workers and a pretty powerful Teachers Union dominate the large metro areas. And up until very recently, Bush didn’t win any hearts in the auto industry (a mega-buyer of steel) by slapping tariffs on imported steel.

I agree with almost all of

I agree with almost all of your comments, except with the idea that Bush is a rube. I do not agree with Bush on many issues, but he is definitely not a rube.

However, Rauch has some excellent points. Dean will be a tough campaigner, and the Democratic Party will certainly rally around Dean in the coming months.

It will be a nasty campaign.

Please recall the point of

Please recall the point of the Jeff Adams article: Dean will lose big-time in Dixie. He might gain steam in other regions, but the South is already in Bush's column. I don't know much about Ohio except for the Cincinnati area, and the entire town would rather die than fail to vote Republican. Dean could steal some Midwest thunder from Bush, but he won't break the most conservative town in the world. I can't imagine the rest of the state is vastly different. Illinois always goes Democratic anyway. I stand by my prediction.

Dean definitely took the

Dean definitely took the wrong approach in the South. He should have been pointing out the way the GOP was cynically manipulating and coopting populist, small town values, while at the same time violating them in practice with neocon corporatism, crony capitalism, and manufactured wars. That, and he should genuinely back off of stuff like guns that are none of the feds' damn business, and use a state's rights approach on the gay marriage issue.

The petty bourgeois values of the average Red State voter are among the best; the problem is not with the values, but the fact that the voters listen to what the GOP is saying instead of looking at what it is doing.

Please see also this.

Please see also this.