Welcome to The Distributed Republic, a blog community started by the members of the original Catallarchy blog. We blog from a classical liberal viewpoint on a variety of topics. Feel free to start your own blog by registering on the sidebar. There are no broad restrictions on viewpoints as long as a civil tone is maintained.

Currently you are viewing the main page of the blog. The reader blog aggregator can be found here.

Please send bug reports or requests for user accounts to jacob.lyles@gmail.com

Battlestar Political-Economica?

I just started watching the first season of Battlestar Gallactica and I find it curious that the Cylons don't appear to have any politics or economic activity. I would think that beings advanced enough to be sentient would have disagreements, factions, problems of collective action, specialization, and trade. Maybe the writers reveal more about Cylon society later in the show.

It is an interesting choice to make the cybernetic lifeforms monotheistic (I'm guessing based on hints through the first six episodes and Caprica). The BSG writers have a more creative imagination than most when it comes to envisioning the culture of killer robots. I'll be disappointed if it stops at that one little detail. Also, I would have been more impressed if the robots developed a religion themselves instead of apparently inheriting it from their human creators.

In episode 3 the humans were wise to choose democracy as a form of rule. Libertarians often criticize democracy because voting acts as an "opiate of the people". By dangling the hope of non-violent change through the ballot box in front of discontents it stifles the growth of revolutionary movements. This is a priceless feature for the government of a tiny human society in constant threat of military annihilation. Governing by the consent of the governed reduces the chance of conflicts that would split the human remnant and leave them weakened. Besides, with only 50,000 survivors they will not have to worry about the danger of a government growing too large, entrenched, and powerful.

I won't be reading any comments so as to avoid spoilers. And yes, I know I am terribly late to the party.


Economics Puzzle

This one has been bugging me for awhile: Why does McDonald's charge 20 cents more for a single cheeseburger than a double cheeseburger?

A Whopper to the commenter with the best answer!


On Democrats, Republican, and Voting – 127th edition

Golly, it’s been months since the last general election – time enough to drag out this old chestnut: After noting a bit of Democratic union pandering, Jacob Lyles remarks,

I doubt that I can ever vote for a Democrat without breaking out in hives....

which prompts me to ponder what afflictions attend his votes for other parties.

On voting, I basically see two options: 1) vote for the candidate that will always do what I would do, or 2) vote for the lesser of evils. Option 1 requires that I write in my own name (or perhaps engage in some studied ignorance combined with wishful thinking). Option 2 requires me to candidly acknowledge that life is full of trade-offs, go through my pouty period, and get on with it.

As far as I can tell, all successful politics is coalition politics. As Lord Acton remarked, "At all times sincere friends of freedom have been rare, and its triumphs have been due to minorities, that have prevailed by associating themselves with auxiliaries whose objects often differed from their own...." You can have purity, you can have victory, but you can’t have both.

Yes, the Democrats are beholden to unions and trial lawyers. However, these ties have not kept Obama from proposing a tax on the “Cadillac health plans” included in some union contracts, and his substitute proposal for No Child Left Behind that focus both rewards and punishments on teachers; nor have they kept Obama from putting tort reform on the table.

And what’s the lesser evil? As F.A. Hayek remarked in Why I Am Not a Conservative,

Unlike liberalism, with its fundamental belief in the long-range power of ideas, conservatism is bound by the stock of ideas inherited at a given time. And since it does not really believe in the power of argument, its last resort is generally a claim to superior wisdom, based on some self-arrogated superior quality.

[T]he most objectionable feature of the conservative attitude is its propensity to reject well-substantiated new knowledge because it dislikes some of the consequences which seem to follow from it - or, to put it bluntly, its obscurantism.... I can have little patience with those who oppose, for instance, the theory of evolution....

Connected with the conservative distrust of the new and the strange is its hostility to internationalism and its proneness to a strident nationalism.... The growth of ideas is an international process, and only those who fully take part in the discussion will be able to exercise a significant influence. It is no real argument to say that an idea is un-American....

[T]he anti-internationalism of conservatism is so frequently associated with imperialism. [T]he more a person dislikes the strange and thinks his own ways superior, the more he tends to regard it as his mission to "civilize" others....

And Hayek wrote that in 1960! (If Texas teachers remove all their Jefferson quotes from their walls, at least they can put up this quote in their place.)

When it comes to picking the lesser of evils, I regard Republican crony capitalism, loopy public finances and paranoid fundamentalist nationalism as the greater threat.


Democrats vote to keep poor kids out of good schools


I guess the more accurate headline would be "Democrats vote to preserve teacher union monopoly". For the second time this week, a party line vote denied funding for the DC Opportunity Scholarship fund.

There are some issues where I am closer to the Democrat platform than the Republican. But on issues like this, the Democrats' shameless bowing to the unions turns my stomach. I doubt that I can ever vote for a Democrat without breaking out in hives.


Look on the bright side

At least under universal health care this woman will be charged with some kind of recklessness.


Markets Know No Borders - Freedom Must Stretch Across All Humanity

My progressive friend Yitz and I had another interesting discussion on Facebook, this time regarding healthcare, free markets, and socialism, inspired by a BusinessWeeks news post Yitz linked to and summarized:

Finland recently signed a law which provides every citizen there with a legal right to a 1 MB/second internet connection as of July 2010, and 100MB/second by December 2015. The Finnish government says that people "need broadband connections to live normal lives."

Yitz followed up this summary with his thoughts:

While I believe in socializing basic needs such as food and healthcare, I had never thought of broadband internet access as a basic need -- but apparently the Finnish are looking towards a future where bandwidth and healthcare are equally vital. Still, all in all -- go Finland.

While the Finnish are a great people - they make the best metal in the world - I'm not so sure we should be following in their footsteps on economic policy. Here is my initial comment in response to Yitz:

Socialized food? So like ban private supermarkets and implement a 5 year agricultural plan, Soviet style?

Or do you mean providing a basic minimum through vouchers like we do with foodstamps?

Personally, I think food and healthcare are too important to be left to a government monopoly heavily influenced by entrenched corporate interests. That's how we got the worst-of-both worlds health care system we have in the U.S. today.

Another commenter challenged me on my characterization of the U.S. health care system as "worst-of-both worlds":

It's interesting how people from all over the world come to the "worst-of-both-worlds health care system we have in the U.S. today" for medical care.

As for free (*someone* i.e. taxpayers pay for it) broadband for all citizens, how about indoor plumbing and toilets? Are those also provided free by the government? I would think that they're more of a "basic need" than broadband Internet.

A different commenter took issue with preexisting condition clauses in insurance contracts:

The second biggest besides the Pre Existing conditions clause, which to me is criminal negligance, is the uncontrolled price gouging on medicines, whereas Canada,Israel etc force low prices and competitiveness.

I clarified and responded to both:

Our system is the worst of both worlds in the sense that either a real free market or a real socialized market would be better than the status quo. We spend more money under our mixed, corporatist system and receive worse health outcomes than we would under outright socialized medical care.

That fact is not incompatible with the fact that people from all over the world come to the U.S. for medical tourism. Our system can be great for people with money; not so great for people without it.

As for preexisting condition clauses, without them, health insurance would not be *insurance*. Insurance insures against risk; if you have a preexisting condition, there is no risk, only certainty. You cannot insure against certainty; you can only pay for it outright. Whether the money to pay for preexisting conditions should come from one's own wealth, charity, or forcibly taken away from others through taxes is a separate question, but you can't fault insurance companies for not insuring against certainties. They wouldn't be insurance companies; they would be welfare companies.

At this point, Yitz joined back in:

I just can't see how a real "free market" system (i.e., you pay, you get healthcare, you don't pay, you die) is even palatable to a society. First of all, it literally puts life-and-death powers EXCLUSIVELY in the hands of corporations (you want to talk about death panels? are they better when called 'ROI Assessment Committees'?).

Second of all, let's take swine flu for instance. Relenza, Tamiflu, all the anti-flu antivirals were made available to populations sometimes with heavy government subsidy. A real "free market" system would have set a price per dose, perhaps offered some sort of sale or promotion, but established prices based on "market value". Thousands of people would have died.

This assumption that people are just going to be charitable AND THAT there will be enough voluntarily offered resources TO SUSTAIN THE POPULATION is just not the case. Why would any society CHOOSE to have a percentage of its citizens destitute (health care cost is the #2 reason for bankruptcy) -- and much more prone, therefore, to crime and other social ills?

Scandinavia is right on the money with that. Internet might be a bit much...

I responded:

Yitz, we actually had something very much like a true free market in health care with low costs and widespread accessability, until the government "fixed" it. And it didn't involve corporations at all. The Jewish community was a particularly good example of how such a cooperative system could and did function. See Roderick Long's article here: http://libertariannation.org/a/f12l3.html

A snippet: "In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, one of the primary sources of health care and health insurance for the working poor in Britain, Australia, and the United States was the fraternal society. Fraternal societies (called "friendly societies" in Britain and Australia) were voluntary mutual-aid associations. Their descendants survive among us today in the form of the Shriners, Elks, Masons, and similar organizations, but these no longer play the central role in American life they formerly did. As recently as 1920, over one-quarter of all adult Americans were members of fraternal societies. (The figure was still higher in Britain and Australia.) Fraternal societies were particularly popular among blacks and immigrants. (Indeed, Teddy Roosevelt's famous attack on "hyphenated Americans" was motivated in part by hostility to the immigrants' fraternal societies; he and other Progressives sought to "Americanize" immigrants by making them dependent for support on the democratic state, rather than on their own independent ethnic communities.)"

As for vaccines and other medications, keep in mind that the current system we have is in no way a free market system. A free market does not grant government protected monopolies in the form of patents to drug companies. A free market does not have a single, monopolistic regulatory organization like the FDA that increases the cost of bringing new drugs to market dramatically. If you want someone or something to blame for the outrageous cost of modern pharmaceuticals, don't blame the free market: blame FDA regulation and government-created pharma patents.

Finally, if you don't assume that people care enough about each other to be charitable and voluntarily help each other when they are in need, why in the world would you assume that people would care enough to vote for a workable state socialist system to force themselves to be charitable? Electoral democracy doesn't magically transform selfish people into philanthropic people.

Yitz then wrote:

OK so no patents. So no intellectual property rights? On anything? Where I DO agree with you is that a patent only means "I invented the X. If you create an X, you must give me royalties." MONOPOLIZING the production of X's, however -- it makes me wonder why this isn't ALREADY illegal under anti-trust legislation (Microsoft Internet Explorer locks out competition and it's illegal, Pfizer locks out competition and it's good business?).

Teddy Roosevelt's "famous attack on hyphenated Americans" only stemmed from the "anti-hyphenate" sentiment in America at the time (America was virulently anti-Semitic and anti-Irish) -- this would be most shocking in Woodrow Wilson's administration where the Ambassador to the UK suggested America "shoot our hyphenates". I agree with you in that the Progressives back in the day were extremely pro-assimilationist (as are some Latinos and Asians in the GOP today btw) -- but we know that the civil rights struggle saw a flip of right & left in America.

Why do you think a "free market" situation would benefit America? How would there not be a horribly destitute underclass created, with no recourse and no resources? Why would "free market" 911 services, let's say, not create Hurricane Katrina-esque situations with every natural disaster? Where does "free market" stop?

My most recent comment in response:

No intellectual property rights on anything. There is a long and rich libertarian/classical liberal history of opposition to intellectual property. See: http://praxeology.net/anticopyright.htm

Asking how a free market would benefit America is a great question, and it's the project of left-libertarians to show progressives how and why this is the case, but it's not the sort of case that can best be made in a Facebook comment thread. The best I can do is try to answer specific questions and point to other resources for longer explanations.

I found your formulation of the question jarringly nationalist. I don't think you intended it to be read this way, it's just a habit that we get into when we stop thinking of people as separate persons and start thing of them as mere parts in a collective. (Hence, free-market left-libertarians are individualists.)

The question is not best phrased as how a free market would benefit *America*, but more accurately, how it would benefit *Americans* and non-Americans alike. For markets know no borders, and there is no justifiable reason for us to treat a person lucky enough to be born into a first world country better than a person unfortunately born into an impoverished developing (or regressing) country. Haitians deserve as much of a right to our care and concern as Haitian-Americans. Anything less is a form of bigotry, discrimination on the basis of national origin; i.e. xenophobia.

This is a huge intellectual hole in modern progressive thought: the interplay between the welfare state and non-citizens. As one of my co-bloggers posed the problem,

"Suppose there are two brothers in Nicaragua. Brother A illegally comes to the United States and gets cancer. Brother B stays in Nicaragua and gets cancer. Why should I pay for Brother A's chemo and not Brother B?"
http://distributedrepublic.net/archives/2009/08/21/immigration-and-national-health-care

So to answer your specific question, the free market, and freedom, and morality, stop no where. They should stretch across all of humanity, and perhaps beyond. This is what humanism means.

You mention Hurricane Katrina. It's a terrific example, because it was a disaster only as a direct result of outrageous government mismanagement, which caused the initial flooding, as well as horrible government mismanagement once the levees broke and the government blocked civil society from responding. To take one famous example, Wal-Mart, that corporation so hated by progressives, was a model of decency and efficiency, while the government was a model of chaos and confusion. From a Washing Post article published shortly after the hurricane:

"While state and federal officials have come under harsh criticism for their handling of the storm's aftermath, Wal-Mart is being held up as a model for logistical efficiency and nimble disaster planning, which have allowed it to quickly deliver staples such as water, fuel and toilet paper to thousands of evacuees. [...] During a tearful interview on "Meet the Press" on Sunday, Aaron F. Broussard, president of Jefferson Parish in the New Orleans suburbs, told host Tim Russert that if "the American government would have responded like Wal-Mart has responded, we wouldn't be in this crisis.""

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/05/AR2005090501598.html

And to address your question "How would there not be a horribly destitute underclass created, with no recourse and no resources?", let to me point to my friend Charles Johnson's excellent article, "Scratching By: How Government Creates Poverty as We Know It."

http://www.thefreemanonline.org/featured/scratching-by-how-government-creates-poverty-as-we-know-it/

Far from helping the poor, the government consistently and systematically hinders them. (One need look no further than this country's insane and racist drug policies to confirm that this is the case.)

I should have noted, of course, that Yitz's horror scenario, "a horribly destitute underclass created, with no recourse and no resources" is what we already have now under a democratic, supposedly progressive, corporatist government.


Hey IOZ, this affects all of us man. Our basic freedoms!

You kids must think you're so cool and trendy with your Shakespearean Lebowski. But if there is going to be a genre spoof of perhaps the greatest movie ever made (and I include Citizen Kane in that calculation), then for the love of all things Dude, please make it a porno.


Tricks up the sleeve

Obama has given a deadline of March 18 for a vote. If da Dems had da votes, they'd have voted already, meaning they don't yet have the votes. So why is Intrade's price for Obamacare's passage reaching higher every day? Either Intrade is totally wrong, or there's something wrong with the conventional wisdom.

Republicans now expect Democrats to pass health care through the House with a trick only Capitol Hill could dream up: approving the Senate bill without voting on it.

Democrats will vote on a separate bill that includes language stating that the original Senate bill is “deemed passed.”

So by voting for the first bill — a reconciliation measure to fix certain things in the Senate bill — that will automatically pass the second bill — the original Senate bill — without a separate roll call taking place.

It’s called the “Slaughter Solution” (prepare for a weekend of endless TV gabbing about it).

And after debating House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer on the chamber floor, Minority Whip Eric Cantor emerged convinced that Democrats are going to use the tactic, and that they won’t allow Republicans, and the public, to see the text of any legislation for 72 hours before a vote.

I don't understand any of this, but what it basically boils down to is shoving the bill through on a technicality that's even more technical than reconciliation.

It would be a say day for the republic when this happens because it sets a precedent. Anything the Dems do today can be matched by the Repubs in the future. Legislation will become that much easier to pass. For those of us who believe that legislation trends the size of government in the wrong direction, ,it will be a dark day indeed.


Libertine Constitutional Theory

Speaking of the Framers, this one goes out to all the Constitutionalists out there. Some theories of interpretation argue for original intent, others for original meaning, still others for a living constitution. As a libertine, I follow the naughty interpretation doctrine.


Pursuit Of Happiness

I don't think this is what the Framers had in mind. Possible subject matter for John Papola's next music video? A remix featuring John Locke vs. Thomas Jefferson. Bonus points if he can get Terry O'Quinn to play Locke.



B.O.B.

Kerry Howley once tweeted that she will "start paying attention to the Independent Women's [F]orum when they declare 'Single Ladies (Put a Ring on It)' their official anthem."

This got me thinking: The Weekly Standard needs a theme song too.



Prohibition: dealing death daily

If you read El Diario, the local paper of the city of Juarez--one of the main battlegrounds in the international War on Drugs--you'll see an article every day about people being killed. The articles don't always indicate if the killings are drug-related, but you'd have to be a fool not to think that the bulk of them are. As prohibition-related violence has ratcheted up there in the last few years this has gradually been coming to the attention of the American news media.

I know there's a running tally of these somewhere, but at some point all the thousands just look like a statistic. Think of it this way: at least one person is killed every day in Juarez, and usually several. It was a local news item a while back that no one had been killed that day.

This is what prohibition gets you.


The Genetic Impact of Ancient Sexual Arrangements

Time for a little break from defending and improving upon democracy. The Moldbugosphere enjoys indulging in the politically incorrect, and I have found a doozy for ya’ll. And it should be fun for those interested in alternative sexual arrangements and the economics thereof. Have a look at this article on Evolution in the Bible. Here’s a bit to whet your appetite:

Sex is rather pleasant. The blind, the cripple and the stupid enjoy it too. And so defective genes do propagate to the next generation unless we allow nature to weed them out. Welfare prevents the unpleasant culling, and I salute the process even as I admit the price. Besides, as long as welfare recipients breed at the same rate as taxpayers, we break even. The human race is good enough, no need for nasty eugenics programs.

But are we breaking even?

Hear the tale of two teenage girls, Sally and Ellie. Sally is diligent, studies hard, goes to college, practices safe sex or even abstinence (we need not investigate). After several years building a career like a modern woman should, she meets Mr. Right. They buy a home in the suburbs, and when their finances are finally in order, she manages with difficulty to bear 2.1 children before she gets too old.

Ellie, on the other hand, lives for the day. The teenage years are time to party hardy! And check out Joe Studly, with his snazzy clothes, James Dean stares and that sleek sportscar! Time to get busy while the hormones are hot, and those rubber thingies really kill the romance. Ellie gets big, Joe moves on looking for tight new hotties, and Uncle Sam has a new ward. Ellie’s value on the marriage market goes down considerably, but no problem. Uncle Sam pays the bills, and plenty of handsome hunks with steamy stares are ready to provide sperm donation services in between pregnancies. By the time Sally and Mr. Right are on child 2.1, Ellie is on bastard number 5 with a grandchild on the way.

Old Dr. Darwin says over time we will have more free-spirited Ellies living for the day and more Joe Studlys with great fashion sense and no conscience. After several generations we might run low on taxpayers to fund all those food stamps and housing projects. Then what?

Maybe we shouldn’t worry about it. What constitutes “fit” today may be unfit tomorrow. Maybe we will be hit with a massive plague, so a propensity for rapid breeding will be most critical for human survival. Maybe civilization will collapse, making today’s gang members more fit than today’s doctors, lawyers and dot-com millionaires. Maybe we’ll have GMO humans and designer babies to offset natural selection before too long. Maybe our robot overlords will take over all responsibilities: ambition and intellect will become liabilities; today’s welfare recipients are the prototypes for a brave new tomorrow. Maybe the Second Coming will happen before too many generations, so Christians should focus on charity and ignore genetics.

Or maybe societies with stricter breeding codes will conquer the decadent West, and we’ll all live under Sharia law, bringing us full circle. Don’t laugh; it’s already beginning in France.

The article goes on to point out how the Old Testament Law got around this genetic dilemma. It explains some of the more politically incorrect parts in terms of reconciling welfare system and longterm genetic viability for the Israelites. Might be worthy material for the Antiversity.


Markets and Culture

(I wrote this in response to a professor's complaint on a mailing list about the rampant commercialization of modern culture)

Markets enable coordinated action between anonymous individuals. They are essential for the functioning of large-scale society. But they have popped up rather recently in our evolutionary history so they don't sit well with our subconscious. They feel, well, anonymous and impersonal. As they are.

So in the classroom we organize interaction to look like much older social structures that sit better with our subconscious, namely tribes or extended families. One could imagine the professor as an older hunter, passing along his knowledge of tracking game animals in the forest to the tribe's children. Markets for labor and material are used to make the university function but on the inside it doesn't look that way.

It is considered rude for a boss to influence his employee by reminding him that "I pay your salary", although it would be an accurate statement to make. Politeness requires us to temporarily forget that market forces were often responsible for drawing us together in the first place; we remember only when we get a paycheck or a tuition bill comes due. Even at the checkout line in a grocery store we make small talk with the clerk and inquire after his well-being while the true nature of our interaction is as plain as the money we hand over.

At the risk of sounding Panglossian, this seems pretty optimal. There is wisdom in choosing the correct social structure to apply to any given interaction. Markets enable us to build and run structures like universities, but it would feel wrong if a professor charged students for attending his office hours, or if students paid his salary by handing over a $10 bill at the beginning of every class.

But I do think our innate suspicion of markets may be stronger than what is rational and we sometimes fail to use markets in situations that make sense. I also think we tend to underestimate the good qualities of markets, especially when we harken back to halcyon times when markets figured less prominently in everyday life. Yes, life was more personal then, maybe even happier. But people also had a lot less freedom in how they organized their lives. Freedom is one of the market's two most compelling virtues (the other is economic growth).


Obamacare Countdown

Here's a great post by Keith Hennessey about the ins and outs of what needs to happen for Obamacare to pass in this dirty game called politics.

As of today, Intrade prices the futures for Obamacare passing at 57.


The dark past, the dark present in North Korea

From the Financial Times via North Korean Economy Watch:

North Korea’s harvests cannot feed all its people and in recent years the annual food deficit was about 1m tonnes. People are chronically malnourished and as many as 1m are believed to have died during famine in the 1990s. [Emphases mine.]


What it means to hit rock bottom

Ike Whitaker was once a scholarship athlete playing quarterback for Virginia Tech. Though he showed promise very early in his career, he was eventually kicked off the team for violation of rules. Eventually, the news came out that he had a problem with alcohol. Articles appeared in the press containing feel-good interviews with Ike in which said all the right things about how he was working to get sober, and later Ike was even reinstated on the football team. However, just a short time later, he was once again dismissed, and rumors flowed about his relapse. That was over a year ago.

Ike just made his first public statement since then.

Okay. I’ve been sober now for five months. I hit rock bottom in the fall. I was still in Blacksburg, but I had nothing going on in my life. I wasn’t part of the football team, I wasn’t in class, I didn’t have a job...I was nothing. My life was bad. My life was corrupt. I was drinking every day. I had no money. So, I’m very ashamed to admit this, but it’s part of my recovery to be completely honest with myself and everyone, so, I would steal food where I could find it to have something to eat. There were stretches that I really don’t remember. My alcoholism had completely taken over. I had to drink to function. That’s how bad it was. Much of it is a blur.

I remember that I was ready to end my life. I was a burden to myself and everyone around me. I just felt dark inside. I knew I had to stop drinking, but I couldn’t. So, I decided to just end it. That’s how tough this addiction is. That’s how depressed and sick the alcohol can make you.

I wanted to go and see Coach (John) Ballein one last time because he had been good to me through my toughest times. He never beat around the bush, he was honest with me and hard on me, but I knew he was hard on me because he cared about me and wanted to see me get my life straight. I remember that I had a bag of alcohol, I had been drinking all night and all morning, and that I was in his office. I don’t know exactly what I said to him, but I’m sure it was something to let him know that I was saying goodbye and that I appreciated everything that he ever did for me and that I’m very sorry that I let him and Coach Beamer down.

Well, I never made it out of his office. He told me that I wasn’t going anywhere and that I certainly wasn’t going to hurt myself. He took the bag of alcohol out of my hands and told me that I was coming with him and that we were going to get some help. I thank God for Coach Ballein. He’s truly an angel on earth. Coach Beamer and Coach Ballein gave me chances and I blew every one of them. That’s totally my fault. I’m ashamed that I treated those two good men the way I did. I’m ashamed that I lied to them. I’ll always regret that and I’ve told them that I’m very sorry.

...

Every day is a battle. It’s a battle. As soon as my eyes open in the morning, I drop to my knees and I ask God to give me the strength and courage to get through another day. I just can’t go back to where I was. I can't. I was at a point where I was no longer drinking for the high, I was drinking to just function. I needed alcohol to be able to speak. I needed it to be able to walk to the store. That’s how bad it was. My body couldn’t function without it.

Also, I want people to know that I’m not a bad person. I don’t have an evil heart. I have a good heart. I don’t mistreat people. I’m a loving, caring person. I’ve just been very sick. I’ve been in a battle and I’ve been losing. But now, I’m starting to win that battle.

I didn't believe the earlier interviews. I believe this one. There's nothing feel-good about it. Hitting rock bottom means standing naked before the world with all your imperfections. This is a prerequisite for recovery. Now Ike has a fighting chance.


Dylan Ratigan has an anger problem


It's unbelievable that MSNBC has a host who actually believes that the Tea Party constituents include a significant number of people who say, "I want to kill blacks and Jews and women." What universe is this guy living in?

Once in a while something amazing happens: a person accuses someone else of the very thing they themselves are doing while being oblivious to the fact. Classic example.


Dems go Nuclear

There's been a shift in sentiment over the past week. I thought health care reform was dead, but it has suddenly sprouted wings. Obama is pushing the reconciliation option without actually calling it that. Despite what the pundits said about the Republicans winning the health care summit, I think they lost. The opinion input wasn't pro-Republican; it was anti-Democrat. When America thinks your opponent is being completely unreasonable, you do not give them a chance to appear reasonable. The pundits said that Republicans came across as "reasonable"; what they missed is that Obama came across as reasonable too. That gave new life to reform.

What's interesting now is that the pundits have no idea what's going to happen. Rather, there's no sort of consensus about what's going to happen. Most think there's no chance in hell. Many others, though, are cautiously optimistic. Intrade was at about 30 yesterday and is 55 today.

I wouldn't be surprised if Republicans get completely pwned here.


Ayn Rand’s genius….

…was not in making a philosophy, but in selling it. Can you do as well?

This year’s ThinkOff debate topic is, “Do the wealthy have an obligation to help the poor?” They’re looking for a pool of 750-word essays from which to pick two champions for each side of the proposition for a live debate.

Easy-peasy, right? Here’s the real challenge: The judges ain’t lookin’ for a dry exchange of talking points comparing Objectivism to Rawlsianism. They’re looking for people with COMPELLING PERSONAL STORIES to illustrate their own arguments.

Now, it’s not hard to imagine lots of compelling personal stories from poor (or formerly poor) people about how they benefited from wealth transfers from the rich, or how they didn’t get those transfers and suffered as a result. Can you construct a countervailing compelling personal story for the opposite perspective? And having constructed it, can you think of a champion who could plausibly claim the story as his or her own? Some alternatives:

1. Find a real-life John Galt who is as succinct as Ayn Rand was verbose.

2. Draft Patri. Admittedly, I know nothing of his personal circumstances, although I suspect that everybody’s life story has SOMETHING that could be told. No, I nominate Patri because of his personal commitment to Seasteading movement – action with inherent drama. So we’d need a brief personal anecdote somehow related to the topic, and immediately transition into describing the life of the new frontiersmen. Recreating the story of the Pilgrims but without the Indians. Risking lives, fortunes, sacred honor in pursuit of the ideals of liberty. Hell, it writes itself.

3. As a fall-back position, there are various ways to criticize the “OBLIGATION to help the poor.” While I can’t think of how to mount an appealing attack on the concept of compassion in 750 words, I can drive a wedge between the idea of compassion and the idea of obligation.

A. “People with the discipline to change themselves are laudable – and rare. For most of us, change becomes possible only when we must confront the consequences of our refusal to change. X% of American adults living in poverty do so because of mental illness, chemical addiction, etc. -- circumstances that cannot be solved with money alone. For people with these issues, an entitlement to a stream of resources merely delays the day of reckoning and the possibility of reformation and growth. As the director of Alcoholics Anonymous – and a recovering alcoholic myself – I know the harm that can be done by a misguided sense of obligation….”

B. “As the principle fundraiser for Catholic Charities, the first thing I want to tell parishioners is to stop feeling guilty -- and among Catholics, that’s a hard message to sell! But I repeat, if you feel even the slightest resentment about contributing, please keep your money. That kind of contribution will not only diminish your own life and vitality, it will diminish the welfare of the poor. Today more families than ever are struggling with financial and other stresses. On top of this, they struggle with a sense of inadequacy for coming to us during their hours of need. We don’t want to compound their problems by subjecting them to a free-floating sense of resentment from the rest of society. So Just Say No to obligation. God loves the cheerful giver!”

C. “As a former Klansman, I can tell you that nothing is eroding the foundations of our society more than the widespread sense of resentment felt by people who feel that they’ve been compelled to help the poor. And because a disproportionate number of poor people are also members of ethnic minority groups, this resentment is fueling racism. If we as a society ever want to get serious about our real obligations – that is, our obligations to remedy the harms of racism – then we need to stop stoking resentment against members of minority groups. Don’t be fooled: while the Klan is currently – and blissfully -- in decline, the Tea Party Movement is now expressing this popular frustration more forcefully than ever….”

4. If the link between compassion and obligation is too great to be overcome in 750 words, then the next best position may be to whipsaw the argument: “Yes, the rich have an obligation to help the poor, just as the poor have an obligation to help the rich. We all have an obligation to use our resources for the betterment of society in general. But an obsessive concern with the resources of the rich – that is, with money -- reflects a misguided sense of envy. As the director of the Organ Donor Repository, I’m in a position to observe that people’s feelings about the duty that the rich owe the poor are not generally reciprocated. People who have signed up to donate organs, volunteer for a bone marrow transplant, or even give blood are overwhelmingly upper class. If we’re all in this together, let’s act like it. No more excuses!”

Those are a few ideas that leapt to mind. Whadda you got?

Deadline is April 1, no foolin'.


Celebrity Deathmatch: Mencius vs Hanson

I finally got around to seeing the video of Robin Hanson debating Mencius Moldbug about "futarchy".

As some have remarked, that was one nerdy gathering. I think if I showed up there, some of the attendees would have hid under the table.

Most of the questions in the follow-up session were piss-poor (except, of course, DDF's) showing that nerds aren't always that smart about markets and government. Then again, I'm just one of those young doctors that Hanson believes thinks they know everything.

I agree with Hanson that futarchy should be judged against the status quo, not against some hypothetical ideal.

Getting down to the meat of the argument, I don't think liquid prediction markets can be manipulated to any significant degree. We have examples of prediction markets right now: stock markets and sports betting markets. It's nearly impossible to predictably manipulate the stock market, and the only way to manipulate the sports betting markets is for a player to throw a game, something that's rare enough to be a non-factor.

Can decision markets be manipulated? That was the question at the center of the debate. The example most understandable to me was a decision market on whether or not Steve Jobs should be replaced as Apple's CEO by a chimpanzee. Let's look at that more closely, because I'm not sure I understand the mechanisms that well. Futures used in prediction markets, I understand. But I don't know how a decision market would actually work.

I can't find where exactly in the video Hanson mentions the "called off bets", and I don't feel like watching the whole thing over again, but lets say there are two cash for stock markets, one for keeping Jobs as CEO (symbol: KEEP), and one for replacing Jobs with a chimp (symbol: DUMP).

On a given day, KEEP is worth $15 and DUMP is worth $10. What exactly does this mean? What am I buying? As I understand it, the losing side gets their money back. So if the board sees that the price of KEEP is higher than the price of DUMP at some predetermined time in the future, it keeps Jobs as CEO of Apple, the KEEPers win, the DUMPers get their money back (because that would be the called-off bet). What do the KEEPers win? What's the payoff? Is there something that ties KEEP to AAPL?

I can't have any sort of opinion on whether decision markets can be manipulated because I don't understand how they would actually work. I suspect this was also the case with most of the audience of the debate.


Who created civilization?

God did.

My own opinion towards religion is that its ontological correctness is one of its least interesting attributes.


Happy Birthday, Tea Party

It's been a year. It's amazing how one man can spark a huge movement if there is enough pent-up pressure in society.


Respect to Brian Macker and Arthur B. who were there when it all started.

A NY Times article profiles Keli Carender, a Tea Party activist from Seattle.

Keli Carender has a pierced nose, performs improv on weekends and lives here in a neighborhood with more Mexican grocers than coffeehouses. You might mistake her for the kind of young person whose vote powered President Obama to the White House. You probably would not think of her as a Tea Party type.

But leaders of the Tea Party movement credit her with being the first.

...

She, like many Tea Party members, resists the idea of a Tea Party leader — “there are a thousand leaders,” she says.

Glenn Beck? “He can be a Tea Partier, but it’s not like the movement bends to him.”

Sarah Palin? She will have to campaign on Tea Party ideas if she wants Tea Party support, Ms. Carender said, adding, “And if she were elected, she’d have to govern on those principles or be fired.”


Community and Exit

Max Borders and Mike Gibson propose a debate over at A Thousand Nations-- Does the right to exit a community undermine the very idea of the community?


Insurance and Mortality

Last week, Megan McArdle wrote in The Atlantic that after you control for this and that, it's not clear that having insurance makes one less likely to die. Leftists were shocked and outraged. Matt Yglesias was all a-twitter:

Do rightwingers really believe that US health insurance has no mortality-curbing impact?

Megan McArdle replied that, okay, maybe there is a relationship between having insurance and being less likely to die that we don't see in the research, but if there is, it's gotta be small.

I'm surprised at the shock and awe from leftwingers, though maybe I shouldn't be. It's part of their gospel that people are dropping dead left and right because of lack of insurance.

As someone in the medical field, though not an epidemiologist or familiar with the research, my personal reaction was a lack of surprise at McArdle's conclusion. Why?

  • Any emergency will be treated at US hospitals. If you don't have insurance but are in a car wreck and bleeding, you will get treated-- you'll receive fluids, blood, angiograms, and if needed, surgery.
  • Aside from that, medical science is still at a primitive level on an absolute scale, even if it has made significant progress on a relative scale. Most things that are going to kill you will still kill you even with the best medicine has to offer. Insurance won't save your life if you get a metastatic cancer (with rare exceptions).
  • The place where insurance would make a difference is with things that would kill you if not treated but would save your life if treated. These types of illnesses, in my anecdotal experience, are rare in the larger scheme of things.
  • On the other side of the ledger is when medical care kills people who would otherwise live to an old age.